流浪的樹

Taipei Race Exposes DPP's Failures

The campaign strategies of the Lee Ying-yuan (李應元) camp in the Taipei mayoral race have displayed signs of disarray and division. They represent the DPP's desire to consolidate its power but reflect a loss of direction for reform and a perplexity about the prospects for reform. As metropolitan voters north of Taichung have gravitated from the pan-green to the pan-blue camp, winning over those voters and reacquiring the momentum and direction for innovation should be the DPP's goals in this election campaign.

The outcome of the last presidential election, strongly suggested that James Soong (宋楚瑜) would have won but for the Chung Hsing Bills Finance scandal (興票案). "Typhoon James" swept over ethnic groups, political parties, social classes and geographical boundaries in the early days of that campaign, securing high levels of support in opinion polls. In the current campaign, it is support for Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) that has transcended the different strata of the electorate. The DPP should take note of and reflect on these new phenomena because they cannot be explained simply in terms of the traditional choice between one party or another. Nor will the DPP's "New Middle Way" slogan -- intended to appeal to the middle classes -- push back the tide of support now enjoyed by Ma.

穿牆越界的多重身分政治

台北市長選戰迄今，李應元陣營選戰策略的混亂與路線分裂，呈現民進黨欲穩定統治權力基礎，卻失去改革方向與願景的虛空迷惘。台中以北都會型選區版圖全面由綠轉藍，民進黨要如何重新爭取這些都會選民認同，取得自我改革方向與動力，才應是投入此次選戰的目標。

從上次總統大選得票來看，如果沒有興票案，宋楚瑜贏得大選絕非空想。民進黨該確切反思，大選初期宋楚瑜「詹姆仕強烈颱風」跨越族群、黨派、階層與區域的民意高支持度現象，以及現在馬英九民意支持度所輻射超越的選民層面，已經不是傳統藍綠認同投票理論的藩籬可以解釋，也非爭取中產階級認同的「新中間路線」可以對應。
從後殖民文化論述看，上屆省長選舉與總統大選、上屆與此屆台北市長選舉時期，宋楚瑜與馬英九以特有美式「現代化」形象、以「新台灣人」符碼所塑造在地化與親民化的「本土自我」奇魅領袖特質，正是冷戰環境下美國文化帝國主義接合國民黨統治意理長期形塑的台灣社會心理結構，所映射出來對統治菁英的期待形象。

去年年底縣市長選舉，馬英九團隊幕僚分別進駐台中以北的都會型選區，將此類生產模式操兵演練。就如馬英九慢跑，朱立倫的單車，胡志強的籃球，王建煊的公益活動，一一展現美式現代化並貼近平民化的政治文化形象。又如宋楚瑜之於台灣頭尾走透透與布袋戲，馬英九之於原住民，朱立倫則以福佬籍老阿媽為敘事主角的新本土懷舊廣告符碼來塑造其「本土自我」。